Trudeau resigning could save the Liberals, but not the government
Polling and demands suggest Trudeau should step aside, but there is little the Liberals can do
Art by @RESLUS.
“Trudeau must go!” has been the right-wing rallying cry for a while now.
Discontent towards Justin Trudeau may have plateaued off its fever pitch, but the desire to see him out of office remains strong, as indicated by federal polling.
However, the call for Trudeau to step down as Liberal Party leader and, by extension, prime minister has now been adopted by a contingent of the Liberals who believe that a new leader is in order.
The NDP axed its supply-and-confidence agreement in September and the Bloc Quebecois gave the Liberals until October’s end to support a pension bill or risk losing its support. With the Conservative Party more than likely to form a majority after next year’s election, and Trudeau’s name becoming more albatross than asset, there might be merit to the budding caucus revolt’s cause.
It is not just party polls, since February 2021, Trudeau’s personal approval ratings have been low, with the gap only widening since. As party leader, he is both the public face and has the final say on which policies get adopted.
His and the party’s reputations are inextricably bound together, so when his approval dips, the party feels the hit, too — the ship goes down with its captain, but the crew are not as keen to see that happen.
It hasn’t just been the sitting Liberal caucus calling for a regime change. Some extra-parliamentary figures are into the idea, and not just some obscure nobodies either, rather, elder statesmen of Canadian liberalism.
Former New Brunswick premier Frank McKenna has voiced his belief that Trudeau must step down and former B.C. premier Christy Clark has made it clear she is planning a political comeback with the partisan crisis acting as a springboard.
Despite this informal vote of no confidence, Trudeau has stated his intention to remain at the helm following a tense meeting with the dissenting Liberals. Not everybody feels that this is the right move for the party going forward and with just cause.
Whether its blackface and pipelines, the Emergencies Act and India, Phoenix pay and the Aga Khan visit, the SNC-Lavalin affair and the ArriveCAN app, and so on, Trudeau has accumulated a laundry list of trust-eroding scandals and policy decisions.
While I highly doubt that Pierre Poilievre and his Conservative Party will be any less divisive and controversial, they also have more than enough ammunition on top of pocketbook issues to direct against Trudeau at the next leaders’ debate.
This is what the party rebels are most concerned about — Trudeau currently does not, and likely will not, have a leg to stand on against Poilievre in the court of public opinion. Therefore, the old must make way for the new. But a new leader will not save the party from electoral defeat. If anything, this is just a case of damage control.
A new Liberal leader would carry their predecessor’s mandate until a new election takes place. Within these confines, the hypothetical replacement would also need to radically change course to try — and likely fail — to distinguish themselves from the near decade-old Trudeau era.
To the voting public outside the party base, this would not be enough to stave off a Poilievre government. At best, the number of parliamentary seats lost would not be as high, and the Liberals would need less time to recuperate and reorganize afterwards.
Should someone else take over as party leader and prime minister, they will more than likely serve as a seat warmer for the next head of government.
