KPU instructors weigh in on the Canadian federal election

Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberal Party have formed a minority government with 170 seats in the House of Commons. The Liberals are now headed into their fourth consecutive term in power. 

Three ridings are still undergoing a recount. The Liberals lead in Terra Nova—The Peninsulas and Milton East—Halton Hills South. However, even if the party wins Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore, they will still be one seat short of the 172 needed to form a majority government. 

The Runner asked three Kwantlen Polytechnic University instructors from different disciplines to weigh in on the election and what the future holds for Canadians. 

KPU sociology instructor Rebecca Yoshizawa says the Liberal comeback was “pretty remarkable.” 

“I think that [U.S. President Donald] Trump lost that election for [Pierre Poilievre], and that was probably something that he really couldn’t control,” Yoshizawa says. “He could have come out fighting a lot stronger, but then that could risk alienating his conservative base of support, who do share a lot of the same ideological values of Trumpism.”

Political science instructor Greg Millard agrees.

“If you zoom out a little bit, [the Liberal comeback] is extremely surprising. The Conservatives had a massive lead …. It’s very difficult to think of a precedent where somebody blew a lead this huge that soon to an election,” he says. “The obvious explanation is the Trump factor, of course.”

Canada-U.S. relations and Trump were key issues for Canadians this election.

Yoshizawa says a major part of the media that influenced Canadians this election was depicting Trump. 

“It wasn’t really a battleground of information, misinformation, spin, and political ads,” she says. “It was any time Trump said something about Canada, that’s what Canadians were watching.”

Psychology instructor Hammond Tarry says a social psychology theory called the identity salience model is important to understand this election. The theory suggests that human identities are shaped by factors such as gender, ethnicity, sexuality, and nationality, he says. 

“When Donald Trump started with the rhetoric around the 51st state and the imposition of tariffs, I think that activated the nationality part of a lot of people’s social identities, so [they] began to see the election as an opportunity to express their Canadian nationality,” Tarry says. 

Strategic voting was also at play this election season.

Strategic voting occurs when someone doesn’t vote for the party they support, but rather casts their ballot for another party to prevent a third party from winning. 

Many progressives voted strategically to prevent a Conservative majority, including Yoshizawa in her riding of South Surrey—White Rock. The polarized and divisive election, she says, is what led to the gutting of third parties like the NDP. 

“This is also a very American style of politics, to have a selection of two parties, which is kind of ironic because the general hubbub of what Canadians want is not to participate in American-style politics.”

Despite the use of strategic voting this election, Millard doesn’t think the tides are changing for electoral reform in Canada.

“I think electoral reform is one of those issues where there’s a vocal minority that is very preoccupied with this issue and pretty much, every election, comes out and bangs the drum,” he says. 

Carney has expressed interest in being “somewhat transformative,” Millard says, including reducing Canada’s reliance on the U.S. economically and militarily. 

Tarry also pointed to elections around the world, which “are potentially being shaped in the same way.”

“There was a similar reversal from the opinion polls to the result again with a left-leaning incumbent party in Australia,” he says. 

The Australian federal election was on May 3, less than one week after Canada’s. The country’s Labour Party won a decisive victory over the Coalition, earning well over the 76 seats needed to win.

“We may think that the Canadian election would have been especially affected because we’re geographically so close to the U.S., but there’s a country thousands of miles away with a similar outcome that was really interesting to me,” Tarry says. 

“These effects aren’t just felt in Canada — they’re being felt across the world.”