Carney buries the post-war order at Davos

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Davos address was the kind of moment that makes you stop, exhale, and confess something uncomfortable. The world we thought we knew had vanished. And, frankly, I am delighted that he said it. Somebody had to. 

Politicians have turned on the concept of a rules-based international order to provide a sense of justice, predictability, and shared norms. But great powers can invade neighbouring countries with freedom, trade rules are changed on impulse, and human rights obligations fade as soon as they become unpleasant. Carney did not violate the restriction — he simply recognized what was evident to everyone paying attention. 

And that is why his speech was important. It was not diplomatic. It was not polite. It was direct, historically grounded, and most importantly honest. 

Carney’s use of the Greek historian Thucydides was not an intellectual presumption. There was a diagnosis. “That the strong can do what they can, and the weak must suffer what they must,” is​ not a warning about the future. Rather, it describes the present. The trend is the same whether it is Russia in Ukraine, China in the South China Sea, or the U.S. employing economic power as a political weapon — global politics is conducted based on power rather than principles. 

So when Carney stated that middle powers like Canada must be pragmatic, establishing economic relationships even with countries whose beliefs differ from ours, I did not hear submission. I overheard realism.

The backlash was quick. U.S. President Donald Trump’s remark, “Canada lives because of the United States,” was interesting and frightening, but it also proved Carney’s claim. If the rules-based system existed, a president would not be able to make such statements on the global arena, but the fact that Trump did demonstrates why Carney’s speech was vital.

Carney outlined a strategy: diversify trade, establish partnerships with other middle powers, invest in defense, and abandon the assumption that the U.S. will always function as a stabilizing force. If his government follows through on these promises, this address will be recognized as a watershed moment.

The global impact is already obvious. European leaders acknowledged its clarity. A G7 leader sent a refreshingly self-aware message to countries in the global South, which had previously been suspicious of western moralizing.

However, the main effects are with the U.S. relationship. Carney’s remarks did not create tension — they revealed it. Canada has been economically dependent on the U.S. for so long that we have forgotten how vulnerable we are. Trump’s warning was not quiet, but it was effective. It emphasized to Canadians that diversification is not a luxury — it is essential for survival.

Ultimately, I believe Carney’s speech delivered the correct message at the appropriate time. It was bold in a manner that Canadian foreign policy rarely is. It did not pretend that the world was safer or more equitable than it is. It did not hide behind stereotypes. It urged Canada, and other middle powers, to quit waiting for someone else to solve the system.

The rules-based order is not dying — it has died. And Carney’s real achievement was refusing to continue pretending differently.