Going Global: Britain and the EU
Britain’s departure from the EU would be a disaster
On June 23, Britons will be voting on whether or not to remain in the European Union. Voting anything other than “remain” will be a historical mistake.
This comes some time after Prime Minister David Cameron made a promise that, if the Conservatives were re-elected in 2015, they would renegotiate Britain’s deal with the EU, and hold a subsequent referendum. Cameron did this in February, having negotiated a deal that would take effect, should Britain vote “remain.” Included in the deal is an “emergency brake” which would allow Britain to put waiting periods on other EU citizens attempting to claim British social benefits. This means it could take up to four years to make a claim, depending on one’s situation.
Another element of this is the refugee crisis. Under the EU, countries need to take in their “fair share” of refugees from Syria and Iraq, and everywhere else for that matter. Refusing to do so will result in fines. Needless to say, there’s a large portion of the UK that is worried about immigration, and many of them are likely to vote “leave.”
Of the reasons to stay, however, economics is surely the largest. Through the EU, Britain gets access to an entire single market (different from a “free trade area”) to sell goods and services to, and other countries get to do the same. What this means is that if Britain leaves, they’ll have to renegotiate a ton of trade deals, including those with Canada and the United States, and that will (not could) take years. Typically, other countries only need to negotiate with the area as a whole.
Furthermore, no tariffs with other European countries are critical to the relationship. This could mean that pensioners in Kent might be paying much more for imported Spanish tomatoes. This also means that other Europeans might be paying much more for British goods, and thus sending less money to the British economy. In addition, according to the Center for European Reform, Britain’s trade with the EU amounted to at least £130-billion, while their trade with China was only £43-billion. Again, leaving the EU brings a huge amount of uncertainty.
It could be argued that Britain could simply join the European Economic Area, along with Norway and Iceland, giving themselves fisheries exemptions while retaining many EU features, such as market access and movement of people. However, member states of the EEA still need to contribute to the EU budget, without getting a say at the table.
Will the British people vote to stay? It’s hard to say, as polling numbers suggest that both sides are neck and neck, with a portion still saying that they’re “unsure.” If it weren’t for the 15-year non-residential voting rule, I would have long mailed out my vote for “remain,” and I hope my British friends do the same.
