Going Global: Turkey
What does a coup d’état mean for Turkey’s geopolitical situation?
Editors note: The situation in Turkey is rapidly changing, and as a result, this article will surely be out of date by print time.
Two weeks ago, a portion of Turkey’s military attempted to assert control over the country. While there are many longform articles to be written about the inner-workings and historical repetitiveness of the putsch, how does this impact the country’s global position, especially when they’re seen as a key ally in the war against terror?
In the early hours between the 15th and 16th of July, a faction of the Turkish military attempted to take control of the civilian government. Though it’s still unclear what the actual motives are, the coup wasn’t a success, and in some ways the current, democratically-elected president, Tayyip Recep Erdogan, who was already increasingly autocratic, now has carte blanche to impose more censorship and centralize power.
This is not the first time that Turkey has had an attempted military coup. There have actually been several, with four taking place between 1960 and 1997. Unlike other countries, the military has seen itself the guardians of democracy, intervening when they believe the government is moving away from secularism. It should be noted for context that Erdogan has made a point of declawing the Turkish military via legal court battles, bringing it under legal control of the government, like most democracies.
One of the biggest ripples stemming from the splash of the coup is the relationship with the United States. Erdogan and his party, the AKP (Justice and Development Party) is accusing the United States of organizing the coup, citing the fact that Fethullah Gülen is living a self-imposed exile in Pennsylvania. Gülen being a former political ally of Erdogan, both of whom had a falling out in 2013.
Of course, the United States has denied this, as the accusation is utterly baseless. Yes, it’s not unusual of the Americans to engineer coups (see: CIA activity in South America between 1950 and 1975), but there’s no evidence to speak of in this case. Furthermore, John Kerry, the current U.S. Secretary of State, has emphasized that exploiting the coup to crack down on government critics and enemies could jeopardize their relationship with NATO. America would get nothing out of a coup in Turkey, as the Americans would prefer the region be stable, and able and willing to host NATO bases.
Speaking of which, Turkey has actually suspended the use of the European Convention of Human Rights, which has brought their already-low chances of gaining EU membership to zero. In order to join the EU, countries must have a functioning economy, a stable democracy, protection of minority groups, and respect for human rights, among other things. A shame, considering Turkey had taken in over a million Syrian refugees, partially to take pressure off of Europe.
It should be said here that Turkey recently formalized its relationship with Russia in late June, this came after Turkey apologized for the downing of a Russian fighter jet in 2015, to which Russia responded with economic sanctions that damaged Turkey’s economy. It has also been reported, according to The Moscow Times, that Russia warned the Turkish government about the coup before it took place.
When you begin to have a problematic relationship with the Europeans and the Americans, you can sometimes turn to Russia. As they say, “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.” This is a weird move if you think about it for too long, given that Russia has given support to Democratic Union Party (PYD), which is thought by some in Turkey to be linked to the PKK (Kurdish Workers Party) whom have been stressing Turkish internal security.
Furthermore, with Russian influence growing in the area, and Erdogan and Putin both with the potential of an autocratic bromance, a Turkish pivot to Russia, away from the West, seems like something to watch for.
