Conservative party resurgence could spell disaster for BC United
If the party returns as a reckoning force, then BC United will feel the brunt
The Conservative Party of British Columbia may be in for a resurgence come the next provincial election with their sudden increase in popularity. (Wikicommons/Conservative Party of British Columbia)
Ever heard of the Conservative Party of British Columbia? They are not a new entity, in fact they used to be a major player in provincial politics, rivaling the BC Liberals, recently renamed to BC United.
The first partisan premier of B.C., Richard McBride, led the party. The last conservative premier held office from 1928 to 1933, and the last time the party was in government was 1952 when their coalition with the liberals broke and the defunct Social Credit Party of Canada began its dominant run under William Andrew Cecil (W.A.C.) Bennett.
After that the party fell into irrelevance if not outright obscurity as the last time a Conservative won a legislative assembly seat was in 1975. The party briefly returned to the assembly when John van Dongen defected from the liberals in March 2012, only to leave in September that year to sit as an independent. Now it seems the conservative party might be making a serious comeback.
Mainstreet Research’s poll conducted from Aug. 29 to 31 has the BC NDP leading with 34.8 per cent support, the conservatives holding second with 26.6 per cent, and BC United – the official opposition – at 21.5 per cent. This is a big upturn for a party that garnered less than two per cent of votes in the 2020 election. The next provincial election is due to be on or before Oct. 19, 2024, so there is time for change to happen, but it seems the political landscape is headed towards a shift of some sort.
This revival began Feb. 16, 2023 when sitting MLA John Rustad joined the party after his online promotion of climate-denialism got him ejected from the Liberal caucus. This March, Rustad was acclaimed leader. On June 24, the Langford-Juan de Fuca and Vancouver-Mount Pleasant by-elections were held and the conservative party won second place whereas BC United netted fourth.
Most recently, the party hit an official status when it gained second sitting member Bruce Banman who crossed the floor from BC United on Sept. 13, securing funding, access to committees, and participation in question period. There’s been a succession of wins for a party that has spent the last several decades basically dead, and a threat to BC United.
Currently B.C. has a two-point-five political system — two dominant parties vying for control plus any number of smaller third parties also in the legislature. With the BC NDP occupying the role of center-left and governing, the party that stands to lose is BC United to the resurgent conservatives right now.
BC United’s support base represents an overlap of federal liberal and Tory voters just as the BC NDP’s is an overlap of federal liberals and new democrats. If the B.C. Conservatives, who position themselves to the right of BC United, manage to hold their popularity into the next election, then they would be eating into a good portion of BC United’s support.
Ironically, BC United could be fractured by this. In the best case scenario for BC United, the right-wing vote splits in a way that keeps them as official opposition but with fewer seats. In the worst case scenario, the Conservatives surpass BC United and usurp their spot in the political ecosystem.
History shows that this could happen. The British Columbia Social Credit Party of Canada, also known as SoCreds, succeeded conservatives, liberals succeeded the SoCreds, and now the conservatives are gunning for United. It could very well come full circle for B.C.’s right-wing.
Of course, the conservatives would not just be settling for second like in the by-election. If they manage to keep up the momentum and become the official opposition, they could position themselves as the new main rivals to the BC NDP, and potentially start gunning for the governing party job once again.
